Swindon Town 1-2 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Accrington ST.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Accrington ST at The County Ground in League Two (matchday 38). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Swindon Town — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Swindon Town have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Swindon Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Accrington ST away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swindon Town at 1.00 PPG versus Accrington ST's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 7.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Swindon Town 4–3 Accrington ST — a Swindon Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 61% versus Accrington ST 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 57% | Accrington ST 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.056 / defence 1.033 | Accrington ST attack 0.827 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.288. Accrington ST's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 83 games and Accrington ST's last 36.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 55% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 22%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.83 | Draw 4.24 | Accrington ST 4.58. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 55% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Swindon Town 1.86 / Accrington ST 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.056 / def 1.033 | Accrington ST attack 0.827 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Accrington ST xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town 1 - 2 Accrington ST.
Where is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 55% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Swindon Town and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 83 games and Accrington ST's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.24
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.96
1.10
Accrington ST xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
29.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.10 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 82 games, going 27W 24D 31L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.10 PPG from 82 outings (24W 18D 40L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.28 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 18W 9D 13L across their last 40 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 40 away games (9W 10D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 27W 24D 31L in their last 82 games (1.28 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 24W 18D 40L in their last 82 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.58 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won Accrington ST 4-0 Swindon Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
4
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 52%, Accrington ST 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Swindon Town) and 48% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 48% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Swindon Town's recent games and 48% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 65% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Swindon Town 1-2 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swindon Town fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Accrington ST outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 83/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 55% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 22%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 57%, Accrington ST 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.28 PPG, Accrington ST 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 38
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →