Crawley Town 2-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Crawley Town at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Notts County encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Notts County make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Notts County have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Notts County have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Crawley Town's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Notts County's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 70% of Notts County's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Notts County edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Crawley Town 1–3 Notts County — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crawley Town 57% and Notts County 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Notts County 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.83 xG and Notts County 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.979 / defence 1.014 | Notts County attack 1.103 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.288. Notts County's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 81 games and Notts County's last 35.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 46% | Draw 24% | Notts County 30%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.15 | Draw 4.24 | Notts County 3.34. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights