Stockport County 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockport County and Walsall meet at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stockport County's overall League Two record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 2W 2D 1L from 5 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Walsall have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Stockport County, 0.90 for Walsall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 70% and Walsall 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 60% | Walsall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 0.91 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.781 / defence 0.956 | Walsall attack 0.791 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.052. Stockport County's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Stockport County games / 56 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 36% | Draw 34% | Walsall 30%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Walsall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Walsall's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 40% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 36% | Draw 34% | Walsall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Stockport County 0.91 / Walsall 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.781 / def 0.956 | Walsall attack 0.791 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Walsall xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Walsall kick off?
Stockport County vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Walsall?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Stockport County vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Walsall part of?
Stockport County vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 36% chance of winning, Walsall a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Stockport County and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Walsall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Walsall in?
Stockport County (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Walsall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.78x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.79x) against Stockport County's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 10/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.71
0.80
Walsall xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.80 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Stockport County have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Stockport County against 0.90 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Stockport County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Walsall have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Walsall in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Walsall have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Walsall away?
Stockport County's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.60 PPG; Walsall away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Walsall in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Walsall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Stockport County 3-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Walsall?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 40%, Walsall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Stockport County and 40% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Walsall in 40%; Walsall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stockport County's recent matches and 40% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Stockport County's recent games and 40% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stockport County and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Walsall finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.91 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Walsall attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 36% | Draw 34% | Walsall 30%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 60%, Walsall 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 0.80 PPG, Walsall 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.