Gillingham 1-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sutton Utd at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gillingham and Sutton Utd meet at MEMS Priestfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Gillingham (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEMS Priestfield Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sutton Utd have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sutton Utd are 0.70 PPG clear of Gillingham in recent League Two fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Gillingham half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 39% versus Sutton Utd 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 29% | Sutton Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.69 xG and Sutton Utd 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.524 / defence 1.032 | Sutton Utd attack 0.940 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.052. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.524 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Gillingham games / 56 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 42%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Sutton Utd 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sutton Utd at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 10% | Sutton Utd 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MEMS Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Gillingham 0.69 / Sutton Utd 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.524 / def 1.032 | Sutton Utd attack 0.940 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sutton Utd xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Gillingham vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Sutton Utd?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Gillingham vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Sutton Utd part of?
Gillingham vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 24% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Gillingham and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gillingham and Sutton Utd in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.52x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.94x) against Gillingham's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 10/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
24%
4.10
33%
3.01
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.71
1.02
Sutton Utd xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 18.4 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.02 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Gillingham have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 9W 20D 27L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd's form line: 26W 12D 18L from 56 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sutton Utd are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gillingham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.45 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 9W 20D 27L in their last 56 games (0.84 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 26W 12D 18L in their last 56 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.89 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Gillingham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gillingham
0
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 3, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Gillingham 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Sutton Utd?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 26%, Sutton Utd 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gillingham) and 44% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 59% of games; Sutton Utd in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Gillingham's recent matches and 52% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gillingham's recent games and 44% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Sutton Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Sutton Utd 1-0 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.69 xG and Sutton Utd 1.02 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.52 / defence 1.03 against Sutton Utd attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 24% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 42%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 29%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Gillingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.