Stockport County 3-2 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Tranmere fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 30 as Stockport County welcome Tranmere to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 3D 2L at Edgeley Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tranmere stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tranmere's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.70 PPG versus Tranmere's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Tranmere and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Tranmere in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 44% versus Tranmere 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 41% | Tranmere 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.05 xG and Tranmere 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.976 / defence 0.840 | Tranmere attack 0.863 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.057. Data: 27 Stockport County games / 73 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 41% | Draw 33% | Tranmere 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Tranmere 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Tranmere's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 30% | Tranmere 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 41% | Draw 33% | Tranmere 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Stockport County 1.05 / Tranmere 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.976 / def 0.840 | Tranmere attack 0.863 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Tranmere xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Tranmere kick off?
Stockport County vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Tranmere?
Stockport County 3 - 2 Tranmere.
Where is Stockport County vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Tranmere part of?
Stockport County vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 41% chance of winning, Tranmere a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stockport County and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Tranmere?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 1 | Tranmere 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Tranmere in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Tranmere (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.98x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.06
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.81
0.77
Tranmere xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.77 for Tranmere, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 6D 10L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.44 PPG, Tranmere on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.07 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Tranmere in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 11W 6D 10L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Tranmere away?
Stockport County's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.69 PPG; Tranmere away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Tranmere in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Tranmere won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Tranmere?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Tranmere have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Tranmere 4-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Tranmere?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 38%, Tranmere 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Stockport County and 23% for Tranmere.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Tranmere in 38%; Tranmere in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stockport County's recent matches and 38% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Stockport County's recent games and 23% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Tranmere tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Tranmere 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Tranmere 3-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.05 xG and Tranmere 0.77 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 0.84 against Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 41% | Draw 33% | Tranmere 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 41%, Tranmere 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Tranmere's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.44 PPG, Tranmere 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.