Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Mansfield Town travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford at University of Bradford Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Mansfield Town have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.40 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mansfield Town trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Mansfield Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Mansfield Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.28 xG and Mansfield Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.022 / defence 1.076 | Mansfield Town attack 1.004 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.057. Data: 72 Bradford games / 73 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 70% | Mansfield Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bradford 1.28 / Mansfield Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.022 / def 1.076 | Mansfield Town attack 1.004 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Bradford (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Mansfield Town xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Bradford 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Bradford vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Mansfield Town part of?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 39% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bradford and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Record (3 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 1W.
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.02x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.59
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.42
1.14
Mansfield Town xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bradford and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bradford and 1.14 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 24D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.64 PPG from 72 outings (34W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.38 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 11W 15D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.36 points per game from 36 outings (14W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.43 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 34W 16D 22L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.33 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Bradford or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 67%, Mansfield Town 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bradford) and 50% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 31%; Mansfield Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bradford's games and 47% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bradford's recent games and 50% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and Mansfield Town finished level at 1-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.28 xG and Mansfield Town 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Mansfield Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 39% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 33%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.38 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.