Stockport County 1-3 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grimsby at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Grimsby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Grimsby at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grimsby stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grimsby away from home this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Grimsby — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Grimsby in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 67% versus Grimsby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Grimsby 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 0.79 xG and Grimsby 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.769 / defence 0.997 | Grimsby attack 0.971 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.035. Stockport County's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Stockport County games / 12 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 28% | Draw 33% | Grimsby 39%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Grimsby 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stockport County's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Grimsby 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 28% | Draw 33% | Grimsby 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Stockport County 0.79 / Grimsby 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.769 / def 0.997 | Grimsby attack 0.971 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Grimsby xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Grimsby kick off?
Stockport County vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Grimsby?
Stockport County 1 - 3 Grimsby.
Where is Stockport County vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Grimsby part of?
Stockport County vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 28% chance of winning, Grimsby a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stockport County and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Grimsby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Grimsby in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Grimsby (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.77x the league average against Grimsby's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
28%
3.58
33%
3.06
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.79
1.00
Grimsby xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.00 for Grimsby, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grimsby, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 3L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Grimsby by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stockport County heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Stockport County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Grimsby's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.58 PPG overall record — Grimsby travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grimsby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grimsby in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Grimsby away?
Grimsby's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.50 PPG; Grimsby away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grimsby in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Stockport County's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
0
Draws
2
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Grimsby?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Grimsby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Grimsby 1-3 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grimsby see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 50%, Grimsby 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Stockport County and 17% for Grimsby.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Grimsby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stockport County's recent matches and 33% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Stockport County's recent games and 17% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Stockport County 1-3 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.79 xG and Grimsby 1.00 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Grimsby outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Grimsby attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 28% | Draw 33% | Grimsby 39%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Grimsby 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Grimsby's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.