Salford City 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 15 as Salford City welcome Bradford to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bradford — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 2.00 PPG versus Bradford's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salford City, 1 for Bradford and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Bradford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 48% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 41% | Bradford 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.40 xG and Bradford 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.106 / defence 0.936 | Bradford attack 1.270 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.035. Bradford have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Salford City games / 58 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 41% | Draw 26% | Bradford 33%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Bradford 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 40% | Bradford 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 41% | Draw 26% | Bradford 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Salford City 1.40 / Bradford 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.106 / def 0.936 | Bradford attack 1.270 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Salford City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bradford xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Bradford kick off?
Salford City vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Salford City 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Salford City vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Bradford part of?
Salford City vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 41% chance of winning, Bradford a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Salford City and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Bradford 1W.
What form are Salford City and Bradford in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.83
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
Bradford xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Salford City and 1.23 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 16D 16L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (20W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.62 PPG, Bradford on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 13W 10D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.22 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Bradford in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 26W 16D 16L in their last 58 games (1.62 PPG), while Bradford have gone 20W 19D 19L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Bradford away?
Salford City's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.75 PPG; Bradford away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Salford City or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bradford in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Salford City
2
Draws
5
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Bradford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Salford City 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 46%, Bradford 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Salford City) and 46% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bradford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Salford City's recent matches and 50% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Bradford tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bradford in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Salford City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Salford City 0-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.40 xG and Bradford 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Bradford attack 1.27 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 41% | Draw 26% | Bradford 33%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 41%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.62 PPG, Bradford 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.