Stevenage 2-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Carlisle at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Lamex Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carlisle have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carlisle away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Stevenage are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 0, Carlisle 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Carlisle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Carlisle 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.43 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.025 / defence 0.998 | Carlisle attack 0.975 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.976. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 49 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 48% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 4.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Carlisle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 48% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Stevenage 1.43 / Carlisle 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.025 / def 0.998 | Carlisle attack 0.975 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carlisle xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Carlisle kick off?
Stevenage vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Stevenage vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Carlisle part of?
Stevenage vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 48% chance of winning, Carlisle a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stevenage and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Carlisle?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Carlisle in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Carlisle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.02) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.38
0.95
Carlisle xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.95 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 13W 15D 21L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carlisle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.10 PPG, Carlisle on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.86 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Carlisle away?
Stevenage's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.50 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stevenage's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Carlisle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Carlisle 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 62% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Stevenage have failed to score in 29% of games; Carlisle in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 62% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Carlisle tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Carlisle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Carlisle 2-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.43 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Carlisle attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 48% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Carlisle's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.10 PPG, Carlisle 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.