Carlisle 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carlisle and Gillingham meet at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carlisle's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carlisle have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 6W 1D 3L at Brunton Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carlisle are significantly better at Brunton Park than their overall form suggests.
Gillingham (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gillingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 42% versus Gillingham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carlisle 46% | Gillingham 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.58 xG and Gillingham 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.883 / defence 0.912 | Gillingham attack 0.633 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.974. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Carlisle games / 5 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 62% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 13%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Carlisle (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carlisle are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 40% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 62% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 34% | xG Carlisle 1.58 / Gillingham 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.883 / def 0.912 | Gillingham attack 0.633 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Gillingham xG
34%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Gillingham kick off?
Carlisle vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Gillingham?
Carlisle 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Carlisle vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Gillingham part of?
Carlisle vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 62% chance of winning, Gillingham a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Carlisle and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and Gillingham in?
Carlisle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.88x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.63x) against Carlisle's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 50/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
62%
1.60
25%
4.05
13%
7.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.15
0.56
Gillingham xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
7.74
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
3%
37.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.56 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carlisle come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 13D 22L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Carlisle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 0.86 PPG from 50 outings (9W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Carlisle against 0.86 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Carlisle's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.70 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 9W 16D 25L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Gillingham away?
Carlisle's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.40 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gillingham won 4-1 on 10 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carlisle
1
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Gillingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Gillingham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Carlisle 0-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 36%, Gillingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Carlisle and 36% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 40% of games; Gillingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Carlisle's recent matches and 52% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Carlisle's recent games and 36% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Gillingham tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carlisle edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Gillingham 1-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.58 xG and Gillingham 0.56 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Gillingham attack 0.63 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 62% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 13%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 46%, Gillingham 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.16 PPG, Gillingham 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.