Stevenage 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bradford travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Bradford have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.30 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stevenage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bradford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Bradford and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bradford trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Bradford 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 48% | Bradford 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.45 xG and Bradford 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.180 / defence 1.210 | Bradford attack 0.737 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.111. Bradford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Stevenage games / 29 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 45% | Draw 32% | Bradford 23%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Bradford 4.35. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 60% | Bradford 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 45% | Draw 32% | Bradford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stevenage 1.45 / Bradford 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.180 / def 1.210 | Bradford attack 0.737 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Bradford xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 45% chance of winning, Bradford a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Bradford 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.18x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.17
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
0.99
Bradford xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.99 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 11D 12L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 8W 13D 8L from 29 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.00 PPG, Bradford on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (5W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 69%.
Last 29 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 6W 11D 12L in their last 29 games (1.00 PPG), while Bradford have gone 8W 13D 8L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.50 PPG; Bradford away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 57%, Bradford 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stevenage) and 43% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Stevenage's games and 57% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stevenage's recent games and 43% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bradford in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stevenage 0-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.45 xG and Bradford 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.18 / defence 1.21 against Bradford attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 45% | Draw 32% | Bradford 23%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 48%, Bradford 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.00 PPG, Bradford 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.