Scunthorpe 1-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Scunthorpe take on Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sands Stadium plays host to Scunthorpe versus Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Scunthorpe have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Scunthorpe at Sands Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Walsall away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Scunthorpe, 0.50 for Walsall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Scunthorpe lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Scunthorpe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 50% versus Walsall 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 36% | Walsall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.82 xG and Walsall 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.680 / defence 1.351 | Walsall attack 0.655 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.111. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Scunthorpe games / 28 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 26% | Draw 38% | Walsall 36%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Walsall 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Scunthorpe 50% | Walsall 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 26% | Draw 38% | Walsall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Scunthorpe 0.82 / Walsall 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.680 / def 1.351 | Walsall attack 0.655 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Walsall xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Walsall kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Walsall kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Walsall?
Scunthorpe 1 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Walsall part of?
Scunthorpe vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 26% chance of winning, Walsall a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Scunthorpe and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Scunthorpe 0W | Draws 1 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Scunthorpe and Walsall in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Walsall (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Scunthorpe's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Walsall's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.66x) against Scunthorpe's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.78
38%
2.63
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
1.80
0.98
Walsall xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 0.98 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Scunthorpe's recent record stands at 3W 10D 15L from 28 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 13L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.68 PPG for Scunthorpe against 1.04 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Scunthorpe have managed 2W 4D 7L from 13 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Walsall in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 games (0.68 PPG), while Walsall have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Walsall away?
Walsall's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.77 PPG; Walsall away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Scunthorpe
1
Draws
0
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Walsall?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 1, Walsall have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Scunthorpe and Walsall?
Scunthorpe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 46%, Walsall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Scunthorpe and 31% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe have failed to score in 46% of games; Walsall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 38% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 31% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Walsall tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Walsall in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Scunthorpe defy the odds to beat Walsall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Scunthorpe beat Walsall 1-0 at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.82 xG and Walsall 0.98 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Walsall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.68 / defence 1.35 against Walsall attack 0.66 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 26% | Draw 38% | Walsall 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Scunthorpe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 36%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Scunthorpe 0.68 PPG, Walsall 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Scunthorpe win broke the near-deadlock. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.