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Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury beat Notts County 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.94 xG and Notts County 1.23 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Notts County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Notts County attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 31/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 28% | Draw 29% | Notts County 43%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 47%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights