Salford City 0-2 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salford City and Walsall meet at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Salford City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Salford City have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Walsall (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Walsall's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Salford City against 1.50 for Walsall. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Salford City edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Salford City 1–2 Walsall — a Walsall win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Walsall half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salford City 65% and Walsall 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 61% | Walsall 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.14 xG and Walsall 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.887 / defence 1.056 | Walsall attack 1.048 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.183. Data: built from Salford City's last 51 games and Walsall's last 52.
Result probabilities: Salford City 32% | Draw 27% | Walsall 41%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.10 | Draw 3.67 | Walsall 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Salford City's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salford City 70% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 7 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 32% | Draw 27% | Walsall 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Salford City 1.14 / Walsall 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.887 / def 1.056 | Walsall attack 1.048 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Walsall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Walsall xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Walsall kick off?
Salford City vs Walsall kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Walsall?
Salford City 0 - 2 Walsall.
Where is Salford City vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Walsall part of?
Salford City vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 32% chance of winning, Walsall a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salford City and Walsall will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Salford City vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salford City's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Walsall's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (1.05x) against Salford City's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 51 games and Walsall's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.67
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Walsall xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Salford City and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Salford City and 1.31 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City's recent record stands at 15W 14D 22L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 18L across 51 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Salford City against 1.51 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 7W 7D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.51 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Walsall in 65%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Walsall
Early Season
Salford City (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Early Season
Walsall
Early Season
❓ Salford City vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Walsall in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Walsall have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Walsall away?
Salford City's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.12 PPG; Walsall away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Salford City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
1
Draws
4
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Walsall?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 5, Walsall have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Salford City and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Walsall 2-4 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Walsall?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Salford City, 64% for Walsall — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Salford City and 64% for Walsall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Walsall in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Walsall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Salford City's games and 64% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salford City and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Salford City's matches and 64% of Walsall's.
Do Salford City and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Salford City's recent matches and 88% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Salford City 0-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.14 xG and Walsall 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Walsall attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 32% | Draw 27% | Walsall 41%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 61%, Walsall 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.16 PPG, Walsall 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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