Bradford 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bradford at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford's home record at University of Bradford Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at University of Bradford Stadium this season.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Bradford, 1.80 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bradford 1W, AFC Wimbledon 0W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 57% versus AFC Wimbledon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 53% | AFC Wimbledon 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.36 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.010 / defence 0.935 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.812 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.183. Data: 52 Bradford games / 51 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 48% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 25%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Wimbledon 4.00. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 50% | AFC Wimbledon 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 48% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Bradford 1.36 / AFC Wimbledon 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.010 / def 0.935 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.812 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Bradford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.90
AFC Wimbledon xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Bradford 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 48% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bradford and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Bradford 1W | Draws 3 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in?
Bradford (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.01x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.81x) against Bradford's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.61
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.26
0.90
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bradford and 0.90 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 22W 13D 16L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 21W 14D 16L from 51 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Bradford against 1.51 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 8D 10L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.43 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 games (1.55 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 21W 14D 16L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Bradford's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.56 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bradford or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
4
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 52%, AFC Wimbledon 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bradford) and 32% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 40%; AFC Wimbledon in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bradford's recent matches and 36% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bradford's recent games and 32% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bradford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 0-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.36 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.90 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bradford fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 48% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 25%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 53%, AFC Wimbledon 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.55 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.