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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Swindon Town 3-2 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.32 xG and Swindon Town 1.92 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.19 / defence 1.17 against Swindon Town attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 26% | Draw 22% | Swindon Town 52%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 50%, Swindon Town 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.57 PPG, Swindon Town 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights