Salford City vs Notts County – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Salford City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Notts County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Notts County 3-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.31 xG and Notts County 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Notts County attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Notts County 33%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Notts County 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.17 PPG, Notts County 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights