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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Newport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Salford City and Newport County drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.72 xG and Newport County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Newport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 56% | Draw 26% | Newport County 19%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 55%, Newport County 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Newport County's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.27 PPG, Newport County 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights