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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Grimsby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Grimsby finished level at 2-2 at Peninsula Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.14 xG and Grimsby 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grimsby outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.02 / defence 0.77 against Grimsby attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 38% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 33%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 46%, Grimsby 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Grimsby's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.65 PPG, Grimsby 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights