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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Crawley Town 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Crawley Town 4-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.72 xG and Crawley Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights