Salford City 4-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salford City and Crawley Town meet at Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Salford City (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Salford City 2W, Crawley Town 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salford City — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 56% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 48% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.72 xG and Crawley Town 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.946 / defence 0.978 | Crawley Town attack 0.781 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.202. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Salford City games / 17 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Crawley Town 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 70% | Crawley Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Salford City 1.72 / Crawley Town 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.946 / def 0.978 | Crawley Town attack 0.781 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Salford City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Crawley Town kick off?
Salford City vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Salford City 4 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Salford City vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Crawley Town part of?
Salford City vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 56% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Salford City and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Record (6 meetings): Salford City 2W | Draws 2 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salford City's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.78x) against Salford City's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.20
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Crawley Town xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
4%
27.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Salford City and 0.92 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City's recent record stands at 26W 17D 20L from 63 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 32L across 63 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 14W 7D 10L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 6W 6D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 26W 17D 20L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 16W 15D 32L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crawley Town away?
Salford City's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.58 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 52%, Crawley Town 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Salford City) and 64% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Salford City's recent matches and 45% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Salford City's matches and 64% of Crawley Town's.
Do Salford City and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Crawley Town 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crawley Town 4-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.72 xG and Crawley Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.