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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Salford City 0-4 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.47 xG and Chesterfield 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Chesterfield outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Chesterfield attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 81/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 24%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Chesterfield win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 41%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Chesterfield's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.47 PPG, Chesterfield 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights