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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Accrington ST 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.46 xG and Accrington ST 1.15 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 43% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 29%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 50%, Accrington ST 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights