Rochdale vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host York at Spotland Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rochdale have posted 3W 1D 3L at Spotland Stadium — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York away from home this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rochdale at 1.20 PPG versus York's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
York in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rochdale 50% and York 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 64% | York 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.78 xG and York 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.899 / defence 1.458 | York attack 0.890 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.141. York bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Rochdale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Rochdale games / 14 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 43% | Draw 26% | York 31%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | York 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rochdale at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 43% | York 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Spotland Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 43% | Draw 26% | York 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Rochdale 1.78 / York 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.899 / def 1.458 | York attack 0.890 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.48
York xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs York kick off?
Rochdale vs York is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium.
Where is Rochdale vs York being played?
The match is being played at Spotland Stadium.
What competition is Rochdale vs York part of?
Rochdale vs York is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs York?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 43% chance of winning, York a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs York?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rochdale and York will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and York?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and York in?
Rochdale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. York (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rochdale's attack rating (0.90) and York's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.86
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Rochdale xG
Total xG
3.27
1.48
York xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Rochdale and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.48 for York, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Rochdale have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.07 PPG, York on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rochdale have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, York have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rochdale are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York in 71%.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and York in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while York have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or York away?
Rochdale's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.43 PPG; York away: 0.43 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 43%, York 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Rochdale) and 43% (York). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Rochdale's games and 86% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rochdale vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rochdale's matches and 43% of York's.
Do Rochdale and York tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, York in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.