Rochdale 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Crown Oil Arena plays host to Rochdale versus Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Rochdale (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rochdale have posted 3W 5D 2L at Crown Oil Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Port Vale have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port Vale's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Rochdale, 1.30 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rochdale 1W, Port Vale 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Rochdale winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rochdale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 62% versus Port Vale 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 52% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.23 xG and Port Vale 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 1.071 / defence 1.259 | Port Vale attack 1.113 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.124. Data: 29 Rochdale games / 29 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 28% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 43%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Port Vale 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 50% | Port Vale 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 28% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Rochdale 1.23 / Port Vale 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 1.071 / def 1.259 | Port Vale attack 1.113 / def 1.154 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Port Vale xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Port Vale kick off?
Rochdale vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Port Vale?
Rochdale 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Rochdale vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Port Vale part of?
Rochdale vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 28% chance of winning, Port Vale a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rochdale and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Rochdale 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Rochdale and Port Vale in?
Rochdale (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rochdale's attack at 1.07x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (1.11x) against Rochdale's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
28%
3.56
28%
3.51
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.81
1.57
Port Vale xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.17
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.57 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rochdale's recent record stands at 7W 13D 9L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 8L across 29 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Rochdale against 1.55 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rochdale have managed 3W 7D 3L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rochdale are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.45 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rochdale have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 7W 13D 9L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.23 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rochdale
1
Draws
0
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 1, Port Vale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Rochdale 1-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Port Vale?
Rochdale have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Rochdale, 77% for Port Vale — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rochdale) and 54% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Rochdale have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rochdale's games and 77% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rochdale vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rochdale's recent games and 54% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Port Vale tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rochdale and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Rochdale and Port Vale drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.23 xG and Port Vale 1.57 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 1.07 / defence 1.26 against Port Vale attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 28% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 43%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 52%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.17 PPG, Port Vale 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.