Port Vale 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Stevenage travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stevenage have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port Vale 1.10 PPG, Stevenage 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Port Vale, 0 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Stevenage trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 57% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 40% | Stevenage 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.09 xG and Stevenage 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.848 / defence 0.998 | Stevenage attack 0.579 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.127. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Port Vale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Port Vale games / 33 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 44% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Stevenage 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 44% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Port Vale 1.09 / Stevenage 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.848 / def 0.998 | Stevenage attack 0.579 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Stevenage xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Stevenage kick off?
Port Vale vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Port Vale 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Port Vale vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Stevenage part of?
Port Vale vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 44% chance of winning, Stevenage a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Port Vale and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Stevenage in?
Port Vale (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.85) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
44%
2.29
37%
2.73
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.74
0.65
Stevenage xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.65 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 13L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 0W 6D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.87 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 5W 12D 13L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Stevenage away?
Port Vale's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.57 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stevenage in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Port Vale's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 43%, Stevenage 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Port Vale) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 29% of games; Stevenage in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Port Vale's recent matches and 29% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Port Vale's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Stevenage tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Stevenage 2-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.09 xG and Stevenage 0.65 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Stevenage attack 0.58 / defence 1.29, drawn from 30/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 44% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 40%, Stevenage 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.