Port Vale 0-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Port Vale welcome Walsall to Vale Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Port Vale have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 4W 3D 1L at Vale Park — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park.
Walsall — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall's away record: 2W 3D 3L from 8 road trips in League Two this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Walsall trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port Vale 59% and Walsall 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 47% | Walsall 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.28 xG and Walsall 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.247 / defence 1.032 | Walsall attack 0.838 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Data: 17 Port Vale games / 17 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 39% | Draw 33% | Walsall 28%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Walsall 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 50% | Walsall 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 39% | Draw 33% | Walsall 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Port Vale 1.28 / Walsall 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.247 / def 1.032 | Walsall attack 0.838 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Walsall xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Walsall kick off?
Port Vale vs Walsall kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Walsall?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Port Vale vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Walsall part of?
Port Vale vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 39% chance of winning, Walsall a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port Vale and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Walsall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Walsall in?
Port Vale (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Walsall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 1.25x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.05
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.33
1.05
Walsall xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.05 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 8W 5D 4L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall's form line: 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port Vale are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Walsall.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 65%.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Walsall in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Walsall have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Walsall away?
Port Vale's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.88 PPG; Walsall away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Walsall in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Port Vale's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
3
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Walsall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Walsall 2-3 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 50%, Walsall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port Vale) and 38% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Walsall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 50% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port Vale's recent games and 38% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Walsall tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Walsall in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Walsall defy the odds to beat Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.28 xG and Walsall 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.25 / defence 1.03 against Walsall attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 39% | Draw 33% | Walsall 28%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 47%, Walsall 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Walsall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.