Carlisle 0-2 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Harrogate Town at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Carlisle welcome Harrogate Town to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Carlisle — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 2L across 8 games at Brunton Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Carlisle are significantly better at Brunton Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 4W 1D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Harrogate Town — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 47% versus Harrogate Town 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 59% | Harrogate Town 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.82 xG and Harrogate Town 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.626 / defence 1.002 | Harrogate Town attack 1.069 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Carlisle games / 17 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 21% | Draw 33% | Harrogate Town 46%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Harrogate Town 2.17. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Harrogate Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carlisle 38% | Harrogate Town 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 21% | Draw 33% | Harrogate Town 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Carlisle 0.82 / Harrogate Town 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.626 / def 1.002 | Harrogate Town attack 1.069 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Harrogate Town xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Carlisle 0 - 2 Harrogate Town.
Where is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town part of?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 21% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Carlisle and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and Harrogate Town in?
Carlisle (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
21%
4.74
33%
2.99
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.12
1.30
Harrogate Town xG
4.74
21%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.30 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Carlisle have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 2W 7D 8L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town's form line: 7W 5D 5L from 17 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Harrogate Town are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carlisle.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L).
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Harrogate Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.76 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Harrogate Town in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Harrogate Town away?
Harrogate Town's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.00 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2022, when Harrogate Town won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carlisle's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Carlisle
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 38%, Harrogate Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Carlisle) and 62% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carlisle's recent matches and 62% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Carlisle's recent games and 62% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Carlisle 0-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.82 xG and Harrogate Town 1.30 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carlisle fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.63 / defence 1.00 against Harrogate Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 21% | Draw 33% | Harrogate Town 46%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 59%, Harrogate Town 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.