Port Vale vs Salford City – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Port Vale take on Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port Vale host Salford City at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Port Vale have won 3, Salford City 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Salford City in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 34% versus Salford City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 34% | Salford City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.93 xG and Salford City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.748 / defence 0.735 | Salford City attack 1.310 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.061. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salford City have an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — the away xG of 1.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Port Vale's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 Port Vale games / 58 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 29% | Draw 36% | Salford City 35%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Salford City 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 10% | Salford City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 29% | Draw 36% | Salford City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Port Vale 0.93 / Salford City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.748 / def 0.735 | Salford City attack 1.310 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Salford City xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Salford City kick off?
Port Vale vs Salford City is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Vale Park.
Where is Port Vale vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Salford City part of?
Port Vale vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 29% chance of winning, Salford City a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Port Vale and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Salford City?
Record (5 meetings): Port Vale 3W | Draws 0 | Salford City 2W.
What form are Port Vale and Salford City in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Salford City (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.75) and Salford City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.39
36%
2.78
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.95
1.02
Salford City xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.02 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 13W 15D 28L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 17L across 56 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 7W 11D 10L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 13W 3D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.39 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Salford City in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Salford City have gone 31W 8D 17L in their last 56 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.14 PPG; Salford City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Salford City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Salford City runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port Vale's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Port Vale
0
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Salford City?
From 5 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 3, Salford City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Salford City 1-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Salford City?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 32%, Salford City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Port Vale) and 54% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 50% of games; Salford City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Port Vale's recent matches and 54% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Port Vale's recent games and 54% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Salford City tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Salford City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.