Port Vale vs Oldham Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port Vale at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Oldham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Oldham meet at Vale Park in League Two (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Port Vale have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port Vale are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Oldham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Oldham's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Port Vale's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Oldham's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Port Vale, 2 for Oldham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2026, ended Port Vale 0–2 Oldham — a Oldham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Oldham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 34% versus Oldham 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 34% | Oldham 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port Vale surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Oldham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.43 xG and Oldham 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.936 / defence 0.870 | Oldham attack 0.773 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Oldham's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Port Vale's last 12 games and Oldham's last 60.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 51% | Draw 31% | Oldham 18%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 1.96 | Draw 3.27 | Oldham 5.41. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and Oldham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port Vale 20% (last 10 home games) | Oldham 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, matchday 34 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 51% | Draw 31% | Oldham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Port Vale 1.43 / Oldham 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.936 / def 0.870 | Oldham attack 0.773 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Oldham xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Oldham FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Oldham kick off?
Port Vale vs Oldham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Vale Park.
Where is Port Vale vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Oldham part of?
Port Vale vs Oldham is a League Two fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 51% chance of winning, Oldham a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Port Vale and Oldham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Port Vale vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.94) and Oldham's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.77x) against Port Vale's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 12 games and Oldham's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
51%
1.96
31%
3.27
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.19
0.77
Oldham xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
22.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Oldham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.77 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port Vale's recent record stands at 14W 15D 29L from 58 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Oldham, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 21L across 58 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oldham by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 8W 11D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oldham's away record stands at 9W 7D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.28 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Oldham
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs Oldham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs Oldham Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Oldham in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 14W 15D 29L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Oldham have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Oldham away?
Port Vale's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.21 PPG; Oldham away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Oldham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Port Vale and Oldham, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
2
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Oldham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Oldham?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Oldham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Oldham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Oldham 2-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Oldham?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 34%, Oldham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Port Vale) and 52% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Oldham in 31%; Port Vale have failed to score in 48% of games; Oldham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Oldham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Oldham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Port Vale's recent matches and 45% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Oldham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Port Vale's recent games and 52% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Oldham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Port Vale's recent matches and 83% of Oldham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 34
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →