Port Vale 0-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Port Vale take on Northampton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Northampton meet at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 5W 2D 3L at Vale Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Northampton (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Northampton away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port Vale lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 56% versus Northampton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 44% | Northampton 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.04 xG and Northampton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.913 / defence 1.079 | Northampton attack 0.892 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.103. Data: 27 Port Vale games / 29 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 34% | Northampton 34%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Northampton 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Port Vale 50% | Northampton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 34% | Northampton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Port Vale 1.04 / Northampton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.913 / def 1.079 | Northampton attack 0.892 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Northampton xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Northampton kick off?
Port Vale vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Northampton?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Port Vale vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Northampton part of?
Port Vale vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 32% chance of winning, Northampton a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Port Vale and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Northampton?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 0 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Northampton in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.89x) against Port Vale's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 27/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.93
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Northampton xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.06 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 12W 7D 8L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 13W 6D 8L from 27 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Port Vale against 1.67 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 5W 4D 4L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.22 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Northampton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Northampton have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Northampton away?
Port Vale's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.62 PPG; Northampton away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Northampton in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Northampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Northampton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Northampton 0-1 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 46%, Northampton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Port Vale) and 46% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Northampton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Port Vale's recent matches and 54% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Port Vale's recent games and 46% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Northampton tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Northampton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Northampton finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.04 xG and Northampton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Northampton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Northampton attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 32% | Draw 34% | Northampton 34%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 44%, Northampton 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.59 PPG, Northampton 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.