Newport County 3-3 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newport County at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Oldham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rodney Parade plays host to Newport County versus Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Newport County have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newport County have posted 6W 2D 2L at Rodney Parade — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oldham (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Oldham's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Newport County. A 0.60 PPG lead over Oldham (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Newport County 1W, Oldham 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Newport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Newport County — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Oldham — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 54% versus Oldham 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 64% | Oldham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.57 xG and Oldham 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.331 / defence 1.148 | Oldham attack 0.540 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.103. Newport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Newport County games / 28 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 57% | Draw 29% | Oldham 14%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Oldham 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Newport County (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newport County are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 50% | Oldham 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 57% | Draw 29% | Oldham 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Newport County 1.57 / Oldham 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.331 / def 1.148 | Oldham attack 0.540 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Newport County (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Oldham xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Oldham kick off?
Newport County vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Oldham?
Newport County 3 - 3 Oldham.
Where is Newport County vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Oldham part of?
Newport County vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 57% chance of winning, Oldham a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Newport County and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Newport County 1W | Draws 0 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Newport County and Oldham in?
Newport County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Oldham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Newport County's attack at 1.33x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.54x) against Newport County's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 30/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
57%
1.75
29%
3.50
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.26
0.68
Oldham xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
3%
33.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Newport County and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Newport County and 0.68 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Oldham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newport County's recent record stands at 12W 8D 8L from 28 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Oldham, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 15L across 28 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Newport County by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oldham heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oldham's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Newport County are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.89 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Oldham in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 games (1.57 PPG), while Oldham have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Oldham away?
Newport County's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.85 PPG; Oldham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Newport County or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Oldham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oldham won 3-0 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newport County have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oldham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Newport County
1
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Oldham?
From 4 meetings on record, Newport County have won 2, Oldham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Newport County 3-2 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Oldham?
Newport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 54%, Oldham 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Newport County) and 38% (Oldham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newport County keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Oldham in 46%; Oldham in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Newport County's recent matches and 23% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Newport County's matches and 38% of Oldham's.
Do Newport County and Oldham tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Oldham in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newport County and Oldham share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 32, as Newport County and Oldham drew 3-3 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.57 xG and Oldham 0.68 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oldham outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.33 / defence 1.15 against Oldham attack 0.54 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 57% | Draw 29% | Oldham 14%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 64%, Oldham 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Oldham's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Newport County arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.