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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Morecambe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Morecambe 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.40 xG and Morecambe 0.68 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Morecambe attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 54% | Draw 27% | Morecambe 18%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 45%, Morecambe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Morecambe's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.24 PPG, Morecambe 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights