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Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 35, as Port Vale and Harrogate Town drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.36 xG and Harrogate Town 0.77 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Harrogate Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 51% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 21%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 45%, Harrogate Town 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.24 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights