Port Vale 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Carlisle at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carlisle make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port Vale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carlisle (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 League Two outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Carlisle have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Carlisle are 1.50 PPG clear of Port Vale in recent League Two fixtures (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.76 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.825 / defence 1.018 | Carlisle attack 1.003 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 0.787 / away 0.929. Data: 2 Port Vale games / 2 Carlisle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 28% | Draw 34% | Carlisle 38%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Carlisle 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Port Vale's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carlisle are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carlisle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 28% | Draw 34% | Carlisle 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Port Vale 0.76 / Carlisle 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.825 / def 1.018 | Carlisle attack 1.003 / def 1.167 | league avg home 0.787 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carlisle xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Carlisle kick off?
Port Vale vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Port Vale vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Carlisle part of?
Port Vale vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 28% chance of winning, Carlisle a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Port Vale and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in?
Port Vale (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.82) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (1.00x) against Port Vale's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
28%
3.59
34%
2.96
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.71
0.95
Carlisle xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 17.2 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.95 for Carlisle, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carlisle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Carlisle by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port Vale have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Carlisle in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Port Vale or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Carlisle in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Carlisle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Port Vale's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Port Vale's recent games and 50% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Carlisle finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.76 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Carlisle attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 28% | Draw 34% | Carlisle 38%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 0%, Carlisle 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Carlisle arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carlisle managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.