Bradford 4-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Stevenage travel to The Utilita Energy Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 League Two fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.00. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stevenage are 1.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.93 xG and Stevenage 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.152 / defence 1.163 | Stevenage attack 1.003 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 0.787 / away 0.929. Data: 2 Bradford games / 2 Stevenage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bradford 31% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 39%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 31% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Bradford 0.93 / Stevenage 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.152 / def 1.163 | Stevenage attack 1.003 / def 1.022 | league avg home 0.787 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stevenage xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stevenage kick off?
Bradford vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Bradford 4 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Bradford vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Stevenage part of?
Bradford vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 31% chance of winning, Stevenage a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bradford and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in?
Bradford (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.15x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
31%
3.27
31%
3.26
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.01
1.08
Stevenage xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Bradford and 1.08 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Bradford have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bradford.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Stevenage in 0%.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Stevenage in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bradford or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Stevenage in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stevenage?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bradford's recent matches and 0% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bradford's recent games and 0% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Stevenage tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bradford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stevenage 4-1 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.93 xG and Stevenage 1.08 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Stevenage attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 31% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 39%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Stevenage 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Bradford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.