Oldham vs Salford City – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oldham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.10 PPG versus Salford City's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Salford City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Oldham's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Salford City winning.
It is worth noting that Salford City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Salford City trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 44% versus Salford City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 48% | Salford City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.71 xG and Salford City 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.188 / defence 0.735 | Salford City attack 0.833 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Oldham's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Oldham games / 50 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 61% | Draw 26% | Salford City 13%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Salford City 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Oldham (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 20% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 61% | Draw 26% | Salford City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Oldham 1.71 / Salford City 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.188 / def 0.735 | Salford City attack 0.833 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Oldham (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Salford City xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Salford City kick off?
Oldham vs Salford City is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Boundary Park.
Where is Oldham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Salford City part of?
Oldham vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 61% chance of winning, Salford City a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oldham and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
Record (4 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 4W.
What form are Oldham and Salford City in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Salford City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.19x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.91
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.39
0.68
Salford City xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
2%
41.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Oldham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Oldham and 0.68 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Salford City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Oldham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 7D 18L across 50 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.50 PPG, Salford City on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 12W 8D 5L from 25 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 10W 2D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Early Season
Salford City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Salford City have gone 25W 7D 18L in their last 50 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Salford City away?
Oldham's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.76 PPG; Salford City away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Oldham or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Salford City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Oldham's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oldham
0
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Salford City have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Oldham 1-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 40%, Salford City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Oldham) and 48% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Salford City in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oldham's recent matches and 48% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oldham's recent games and 48% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Salford City tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Salford City in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.