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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oldham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.71 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Crawley Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 42%, Crawley Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crawley Town's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights