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Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oldham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Oldham 0-3 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.96 xG and Cambridge United 0.90 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oldham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 36% | Draw 32% | Cambridge United 32%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 38%, Cambridge United 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambridge United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambridge United arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights