Oldham 3-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oldham at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Oldham welcome Accrington ST to Boundary Park in League Two (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oldham stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oldham at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Oldham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Accrington ST have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Accrington ST away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Oldham are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Oldham have won 0, Accrington ST 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Oldham 0–1 Accrington ST — a Accrington ST win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Accrington ST trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 44% versus Accrington ST 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 47% | Accrington ST 36%). Note also that Accrington ST surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Oldham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.29 xG and Accrington ST 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.979 / defence 0.821 | Accrington ST attack 0.799 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.207. Accrington ST's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Oldham's last 45 games and Accrington ST's last 91.
Result probabilities: Oldham 48% | Draw 29% | Accrington ST 23%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.07 | Draw 3.47 | Accrington ST 4.37. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oldham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Oldham's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oldham 40% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 46 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 48% | Draw 29% | Accrington ST 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Oldham 1.29 / Accrington ST 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.979 / def 0.821 | Accrington ST attack 0.799 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Oldham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Accrington ST xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oldham vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Oldham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Oldham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Oldham 3 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Oldham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Accrington ST part of?
Oldham vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 48% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oldham and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Oldham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.98x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oldham's last 45 games and Accrington ST's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.47
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.08
0.79
Accrington ST xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oldham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Oldham and 0.79 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Oldham have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 17W 14D 14L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 14W 11D 20L from 45 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.44 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oldham have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 8D 5L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 5W 6D 11L from their last 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.04 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Oldham (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oldham
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Oldham vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Oldham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Accrington ST away?
Oldham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.59 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Oldham or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2026, when Oldham won Oldham 3-0 Accrington ST.
Oldham's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Oldham
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Oldham vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Accrington ST?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Oldham have won 1, Accrington ST have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oldham and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Oldham 0-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 46%, Accrington ST 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Oldham) and 36% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Accrington ST in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oldham vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oldham and Accrington ST matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Oldham's recent matches and 41% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oldham and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Oldham's recent games and 36% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Oldham's recent matches and 73% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oldham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Accrington ST 3-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.29 xG and Accrington ST 0.79 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Accrington ST attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 48% | Draw 29% | Accrington ST 23%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 47%, Accrington ST 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.44 PPG, Accrington ST 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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