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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swindon Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Swindon Town 2-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.61 xG and Swindon Town 0.88 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swindon Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Swindon Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 53% | Draw 28% | Swindon Town 19%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 64%, Swindon Town 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Swindon Town's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.42 PPG, Swindon Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights