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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Salford City 3-0 at Wembley Stadium, Final, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salford City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Salford City 29%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Salford City's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.64 PPG, Salford City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights