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Stalemate at Notts County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 38, as Notts County and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.05 xG and Crewe 0.97 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Crewe attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Crewe 32%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 60%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Crewe's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.47 PPG, Crewe 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights