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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Crawley Town 4-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.61 xG and Crawley Town 0.93 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 22%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights