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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Notts County 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Notts County 2-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.56 xG and Chesterfield 0.94 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chesterfield outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.19 / defence 0.77 against Chesterfield attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 81/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 52% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 23%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Chesterfield win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 47%, Chesterfield 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Chesterfield's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.64 PPG, Chesterfield 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights