Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Notts County at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Cheltenham encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Cheltenham in League Two (matchday 39). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Notts County's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Notts County's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cheltenham have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Notts County's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Notts County, 1 for Cheltenham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2025, ended Notts County 2–1 Cheltenham — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (last 83 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (last 83 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Cheltenham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 48% | Cheltenham 48%). Note also that Cheltenham surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Notts County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.84 xG and Cheltenham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.234 / defence 0.910 | Cheltenham attack 0.956 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.198. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Notts County's projected output up. Data: built from Notts County's last 83 games and Cheltenham's last 83.

Result probabilities: Notts County 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.78 | Draw 4.41 | Cheltenham 4.72. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Notts County 40% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights