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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Carlisle 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Carlisle 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.52 xG and Carlisle 0.77 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Carlisle attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 54% | Draw 28% | Carlisle 18%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 62%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Carlisle's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights