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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Barrow defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barrow beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.64 xG and Barrow 0.56 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Barrow outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Barrow attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 64% | Draw 24% | Barrow 12%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Barrow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 61%, Barrow 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Barrow's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.51 PPG, Barrow 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barrow win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Barrow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights