🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Barnet defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barnet beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.87 xG and Barnet 1.34 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Notts County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.41 / defence 0.98 against Barnet attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 50% | Draw 23% | Barnet 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Barnet win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 58%, Barnet 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Barnet's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.77 PPG, Barnet 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnet win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights