Notts County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 12 as Notts County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 1.80 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Notts County have won 0, AFC Wimbledon 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 67% versus AFC Wimbledon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 68% | AFC Wimbledon 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.19 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.051 / defence 0.982 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.661 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.212. Data: 57 Notts County games / 54 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 24%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 4.17. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 50% | AFC Wimbledon 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Notts County 1.19 / AFC Wimbledon 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.051 / def 0.982 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.661 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Notts County (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.79
AFC Wimbledon xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Notts County 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 45% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Notts County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 2W.
What form are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.05x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.31
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Notts County xG
Total xG
1.98
0.79
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Notts County and 0.79 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 10D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.50 PPG from 54 outings (22W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.41 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Notts County's home form reads 13W 3D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.43 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 22W 10D 22L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 22W 15D 17L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Notts County's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.56 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Notts County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AFC Wimbledon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Notts County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
0
Draws
5
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 63%, AFC Wimbledon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Notts County) and 30% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 41%; AFC Wimbledon in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Notts County's recent matches and 33% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Notts County's recent games and 30% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.19 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.79 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.66 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 68%, AFC Wimbledon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.41 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.